ABN Amro: housing market cools, fewer transactions expected in 2026

Cooling on the housing market: ABN Amro expects fewer transactions in 2026 and 2027

The Dutch housing market is heading for a quieter period. After a firm 2025 in which prices rose sharply and buyers moved in numbers, ABN Amro is now applying the brakes with a sober forecast: fewer transactions, slightly rising prices and a building sector that cannot keep up. What does that mean for you as a buyer, seller or investor?

The figures speak for themselves. ABN Amro has revised its expectation for the number of housing transactions in 2026 downwards, from minus 1 percent to minus 3 percent. And 2027 does not look much better, with an expected fall of 4 percent. The bank published these conclusions in its latest housing market monitor.

Why is the market cooling?

Several factors are at play at once. Mortgage rates are creeping up, fed by the expectation that the European Central Bank will raise its deposit rate twice more this year by 25 basis points. For buyers that simply means: you can borrow less for the same monthly amount. That deters people, certainly first-time buyers who already struggle to get a foot in the door.

On top of that comes geopolitical uncertainty. The war in the Middle East is pushing energy prices up, which feeds inflation. And inflation is the enemy of purchasing power. It is a chain that ends up at the housing market: higher costs, less confidence, more hesitation over large purchases.

The housing market is cooling, but prices keep rising because of the persistent housing shortage.

Prices keep rising, but moderately

Here it gets interesting. Despite the cooling, ABN Amro expects house prices to keep rising. By 3 percent in 2026 and even 4 percent in 2027. How can that be if less is being bought?

The answer lies in the housing shortage. The Netherlands simply has too few homes and that problem will not disappear on its own. Last year's real income growth is also still working through. Sellers who cannot get the price they want simply take their home off the market. That keeps supply tight and prices up.

Notably, price rises in rural areas are currently stronger than in the cities. The working-from-home effect of the pandemic years appears to be lasting. Anyone looking for a garden and space no longer automatically looks at Amsterdam or Utrecht.

New-build output is falling short of demand for homes.

Building cannot keep up

And then new build. Or rather: the lack of it. In the first quarter of 2026 the number of new homes was 7.6 percent lower than in the same period last year. That is not a good sign. Mike Langen, senior housing market economist at ABN Amro, is clear about it: although more building permits are being issued, the execution phase stalls on planning and limited building capacity.

Investors are dropping out too. Institutional parties are withdrawing on a large scale from property investor Vesteda. The private investor does not have it easy either, given strict regulation and higher taxes. Who is going to finance all those new-build projects?

Investors are withdrawing from the housing market, putting pressure on the financing of new build.

The catch-up of 2027

There is a bright spot in the analysis too. ABN Amro expects buyers who are holding back now to return in 2027 once the economic situation stabilises. A catch-up effect, in other words. The only question is whether the supply will be there then.

Investors selling off rental homes will continue through the first half of 2026. That temporarily provides extra supply for buyers. But after the summer that source will probably dry up. And the structural housing shortage? That remains.

What does this mean for the home seeker?

Planning to buy a home this year? Then it pays to be realistic. The days of blind overbidding appear to be over, but do not expect a bargain market. Rates are higher than two years ago, supply remains limited and prices are not falling.

For sellers: patience pays. If you do not have to sell, you can afford to wait a while. The market is not turning, it is calming. That is a meaningful difference.

The housing market is like a tanker at sea. It does not change course all at once, but the current shifts slowly. And anyone who navigates well comes through it fine.

Source: ABN Amro housing market monitor, April 2026