Fewer homes sold, but prices? They just keep rising

It was to be expected. After a strong 2025 the housing market is getting quieter. Not because homes are worth less, because that is not happening. But simply because fewer are being sold.

ABN Amro published its latest housing market monitor in early April and the figures are clear: three percent fewer transactions this year, four percent fewer next year. Barely two months ago the bank was expecting a fall of just one percent. That they adjusted their forecast so quickly says something.

Mortgage rates bite

Mortgage rates have been rising for months. The European Central Bank is raising its deposit rate and that is felt immediately at the lender. Higher monthly costs, lower maximum mortgage. Add rising energy prices caused by unrest in the Middle East, and you understand why people are becoming more cautious.

Last year you bid above the asking price without blinking. Now you wait a moment.

Photo: Unsplash

Flattening in the Randstad, not outside it

What stands out in the figures: outside the cities prices rise faster than within them. That is a pattern economists recognise. Cities lead price movements, up and down. If the countryside is catching up with the cities, that can mean the peak in the cities is already behind us.

More permits, fewer houses

More building permits are being issued, but the number of homes delivered fell 7.6 percent in the first quarter. How can that be? The problem is not in the plans but in the execution. Municipalities are slow, contractors are full, and investors are dropping out.

Photo: Unsplash

That last point is perhaps the most worrying. Large institutional parties are withdrawing from housebuilding. At Vesteda, for example, investors are stepping out. Without that money, large new-build projects become considerably harder to finance.

Mike Langen, senior economist at ABN Amro, puts it this way: "Investor interest is declining. That puts the financing of new build under pressure."

Sellers prefer to wait

Sellers are not sitting still either. Or rather: they are sitting very still. Many homeowners would rather not sell if they cannot get the price they want. Logical, because their house is not losing value. But the consequence is that less supply reaches the market.

Landlords selling their properties to private buyers still create some movement in the first half of the year. After the summer that too dries up, ABN Amro expects.

Photo: Unsplash

Will 2027 be the year of catching up?

The bank thinks so. At least, if the economy does not deteriorate further. Buyers who are waiting now are building up demand. Wages are still rising, so purchasing power holds up reasonably. At some point those people come back.

But for now the market is mainly quiet. Prices are not falling, but everything is moving a little more slowly. Less haste when bidding, but also less to choose from. And as a seller? Take your time. You have it.

Source: ABN Amro housing market monitor, April 2026