The housing divide grows: first-time buyers and movers live in two different markets

Picture this: two buyers stand in front of the same terraced house. One is a first-time buyer who has saved for years and has to give it everything. The other first sells their own home, cashes in the equity and walks into the notary's office whistling. That difference always existed, but it is growing. Considerably.

New quarterly figures from the mortgage data network HDN show that the gap between first-time buyers and movers on the Dutch housing market widened further in the first quarter of 2026. And that while the market as a whole was running reasonably well.

A quarter of two faces

The first quarter began quietly. Up to early March, mortgage applications were more than 14 percent below a year earlier. Little reason for optimism, you would think. But then sentiment turned. In the third week of March the number of applications exploded. With 22,723 applications in a single week a record was broken.

What was going on? Geopolitical tension pushed mortgage rates up, and anyone hesitating about a purchase suddenly decided to act fast. The classic pattern: uncertainty drives people into action. Thanks to that strong finish, the quarter came in at 146,814 applications, up 3.3 percent on last year.

First-time buyers have to bring more of their own money to a purchase

First-time buyers draw the short straw

But behind those figures lies a less rosy story. First-time buyers have to bring more savings on average than a year ago. At the same time they borrow relatively more against the property value. And as if that were not enough: they more often buy homes with a poor energy label.

What does that mean in practice? Higher monthly costs. A less comfortable home. And greater financial risk, because those poor labels also mean a higher risk class with the lender. Movers, by contrast, have it considerably easier. They need to put in less of their own money, benefit from equity and more often buy energy-efficient homes. So the housing market really has two faces, depending on where you enter it.

North Holland versus Friesland: two worlds

That divide is visible not only between groups of buyers but also between regions. In Limburg and Zeeland the mortgage market grew substantially. In Drenthe and Utrecht there was a decline. The average mortgage amount for a first-time buyer without the national guarantee in North Holland is miles above that in Friesland.

Regional differences on the housing market keep widening

That is not surprising when you think about it. The Randstad has higher prices, more competition and tighter conditions. But the difference is growing, and that is genuinely worrying. Anyone buying in a cheaper region has lower monthly costs, but also less value growth to fall back on later.

Energy improvements as quiet engine

Notable is the growth of the so-called non-buyer market. Those are mortgage applications not intended for a purchase but for renovations, remortgaging or energy improvements. With 63,436 applications this segment reached its highest level since 2022.

Increases for home improvement and energy measures rose in particular. The government is pushing homeowners towards heat pumps, insulation and solar panels, and you see that in the figures. Still, growth here appears to be flattening. Part of the pent-up demand after the rate rises of earlier years has now been met.

Energy improvement remains an important driver of mortgage applications

Stabilisation, but for whom?

The average property value rose 2 percent in the first quarter to 517,200 euro. That is the smallest rise since 2023. You could say the market is stabilising, and on paper that is good news.

But stabilisation for whom? For movers already in the market it means their equity grows more slowly. Annoying, but not dramatic. For first-time buyers it means homes are still getting more expensive, only slightly more slowly. The threshold is not coming down, it is just rising less quickly.

Analysts at ABN AMRO also expect the housing market to cool in 2026. Prices will rise slightly further, but transaction numbers will fall. The market becomes calmer, but more accessible? That is another story.

What does this mean for you?

Are you a first-time buyer? Then it is important to look carefully at your financing position. A slightly higher rate now can cost tens of thousands of euros over the full term. Do not let market unrest rush you, but stay alert to opportunities. A home with a poor energy label can rise in value precisely after it is improved.

Are you moving up? Then you are relatively comfortable, but do not underestimate the regional differences. The market in your province can look very different from the national average.

And for everyone: the housing market of 2026 is one of nuance. The broad lines look reasonable, but the details tell a very different story. It is that housing divide we should worry about most.